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Home > Ricardo School of Business > Center for International Futures Forecasting

Center for International Futures Forecasting

The University's Center for International Futures Forecasting (CIFF) came into being in August 2007 and is currently in its development stages.

The knowledge and ability to identify and accurately forecast emerging global trends is of vital importance to the future of business in all its aspects. CIFF seeks to build a robust and independent platform for this activity and to encourage future-conscious business awareness built on technological, political and financial models of change patterns.

People
Professor Guntram Werther consults in the area of emerging international futures forecasting, where his work was recently selected as winner in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence's Proteus Management Group 2007 international complex systems monograph competition. He is currently preparing a book on emerging international futures for Proteus.

Professor Werther earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from Washington University in St Louis (1990), his dissertation being defended with distinction and twice nominated as the best dissertation nationally in comparative politics (Gabriel Almond Prize competition 1991-92). The book based thereon was reviewed as the “most important book published” in its field (Dr. Jay Sigler review), and listed among the best works then published internationally (Australian Journal of International Affairs, Vol.48, No. 2, Nov. 1994; being therein co-listed with the work of world leaders such as Ted Gurr, David Brown, Walker Conner, Elie Kedourie, Morten Halpern, Thomas Eriksen, and similar others).

He is interested in working with top-tier organizations that support cutting-edge inquiry at the highest corporate, government, and educational levels. His acknowledged world-class holistically integrative emerging international futures analysis work is principally in: “Profiling international change processes”; a holistic socio-psychologically grounded approach to international emerging trends prediction and the evaluation of international change. This work is currently used in training senior intelligence analysts through Office of the Director, National Intelligence programs in the area of the holistic analysis of complex system’s emerging ‘futures’ and has been referred to the Defense Intelligence Agency and to a leading artificial intelligence firm that regularly does Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) business.

A secondary research focus is on comparative patterns of country development styles, their form of integration into international markets, and international patterns of insurgency response.

Further reading
"The other war: resurgent socialism and insurgency in an age of globalization", Guntram Werther, Homeland Security Defense Coalition, Knightsbridge University, Marquess College, London

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